Is DeSantis’s Gambit a Checkmate Against Democrats?
1. Court jesters’ gambit: DeSantis and Rubio’s immigration schemes backfire with key voters
The Republican Party has been repeatedly telling the media and Democrats that immigration and the border are their midterm messaging weapon of choice. And we’ve been telling you, believe them AND respond. It’s no surprise that Gov. DeSantis pulled the Martha’s Vineyard stunt to rile up his base and stir up a media frenzy. His ploy backfired – not only in the Massachusetts island and with voters at large, but with critical Florida voters.
Swayable, a data platform that measures the impact of ads among registered voters, tested a new FLIC Votes ad launched yesterday against the governor’s use of taxpayer dollars on the migrant flights.
Overall, the ad increased unfavorability against DeSantis by 7 points among Florida voters. In fact, 55% of voters said that if the election were held today, they would vote for Democratic candidate Charlie Crist.
Among Independents, more than half (52%) opted for Crist.
Latino voters also shifted their vote to Crist by 9 points after viewing the ad, from 49% to 58%.
Senator Rubio’s flip-flopping immigration record is also a political loser. In another ad tested by Swayable, Florida voters viewed an ad that showed how Rubio went from immigration reform champ to the chump blocking citizenship for Dreamers and promising to end DACA.
After viewing the ad, 53% of Florida voters, including 51% of Independents, surveyed said they’d vote for Democratic candidate Val Demings over Rubio whose unfavorability increased by nearly 10 points.
The jump was even more dramatic with Latino voters: a 10-point increase for Demings (12-point drop for Rubio), with 58% of Latinos who said they’d vote for the congresswoman.
The lesson for Democrats: DeSantis, Rubio and similar MAGA Republicans aren’t playing chess. They’re playing with people’s lives and livelihoods so take ’em to task and hold them accountable on immigration.
2. Say it louder for the Democratic, swing and Latino voters in the back
Florida’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist ad launched Sept. 17
The grotesque exploits of Governors Greg Abbott (R-TX) and DeSantis (R-FL) are prime opportunities for Democrats to step up and show voters where they stand on immigration. Earlier and most recent research has consistently demonstrated that when Democrats call out their opponent’s inhumane, extreme political stunts and contrast it with American values and popular solutions, they can win the public debate and score votes.
Watch Democratic Charlie Crist’s latest ad against DeSantis who eloquently reiterated our shared values in a tweet: “My faith teaches me that we're all children of God — that is lost on Ron DeSantis. For him, it’s always putting politics over peoples’ lives.”
With Texas Independent voters divided on Abbott’s immigration policies, Beto O’Rourke on Jimmy Kimmel nailed the messaging formula in the aftermath of the governors’ antics:
“We know that folks are coming here to work; they're coming here to join family; they're coming here to seek asylum because to return to their countries of origin would mean certain death for them or their kids. So how about in Texas... a state full of immigrants that has made us so successful and strong and safe… what if we led the way on ensuring that if you want to come to this country you follow our laws, but on our part we will rewrite our laws so they reflect our values, our needs. There should be a safe, legal, orderly path for those who want to come to this country.”
Bonus: With PA’s Jon Fetterman leading against Mehmet Oz on immigration in the latest poll, Pennsylvania Second Lady Gisele Fetterman tweeted: “Where is our humanity? These are people. They are mothers, fathers, brothers and sisters who are leaving behind everything and everyone they know, all for a chance at a better life.”
3. GOP disinformation spooks: Halloween candy and stimulus checks
“Every mom in the country is worried,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel fretted on Fox News last week. The moral-panic of the month is so-called “rainbow” fentanyl potentially showing up in the Halloween candy basket of innocent children across America’s suburbs, all because of “open borders.”
None of it is true. As CNN's Daniel Dale reports, “fentanyl being seized is more proof the border is not actually open. In the vast majority of the time, it is being brought in by U.S. citizens or legal residents.”
According to America’s Voice ad tracking project, Republican campaigns have run over 370 different paid ads and 128 campaign emails that make the spurious connection between immigration and illicit drugs.
Meanwhile, as the general election ad wars begin, the GOP has revived its dog-whistle about “stimulus checks for illegal immigrants.” Besides being untrue, Republicans voted for the prior two stimulus bills under the Trump Administration, which contained the same language they cite for this attack line. The top GOP PACs and committees are running with this disingenuous attack:
In Georgia, both the Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation each have an ad employing the attack line against Sen. Raphael Warnock.
In Arizona, Saving Arizona PAC has used the line against Sen. Mark Kelly.
In Texas, the National Republican Congressional Committee has both English and Spanish ads hitting Rep. Henry Cueller with the line.
In Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio is attacking Val Demmings on the line — even though he voted for both of the Trump era stimulus bills.
4. Divide and distract by the numbers
It’s really not because Halloween is just weeks away that the GOP wants to keep scaring voters with talks about the border. With the impacts of Roe and MAGA extremism acting as the real ghouls, the party is desperate to distract and divide voters.
According to our internal Twitter tracking, Republicans are nine times more likely to mention the border than abortion.
Meanwhile, concerns over the economy and inflation are still the top issue for many voters, but Republicans are just as likely to mention the border as inflation. A new Emerson College Poll about voter priorities ranks the economy first (40%). Immigration came in fifth (7%), with the Republican base largely driving the concern over immigration issues.
Beyond inflation and the border, many Republicans are peddling fears about violent crime (more on this in our next issue). But as the New York Times wrote about their new polling, "Republican dreams of a major realignment of Latino voters drawn to G.O.P. stances on crime and social issues have failed to materialize.”
According to the Houston Chronicle, "Republicans in congressional races across Texas tweeted about the border 741 times in September, when the migrant busing again stole the national spotlight. That was a 55 percent increase over July.”
5. Right-wing media overview
In the month of September, there were:
6,289 negative mentions of immigration in right-wing media,
more than 196,000 negative references to immigration on all of Twitter,
2,987 mentions from GOP Twitter accounts.
The volume of immigration media mentions revolved around Governor Ron DeSantis’s reckless decision to fly migrant families and children to Martha’s Vineyard.
Source: Critical Mentions
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